We back tested our system using stationary parameters on economic
and market data from 1926 through 1992. Going forward our system must
adapt to changes as they occur. Which is why we have and will
modify our timing parameters within the system, in the event that
fundamental changes in the economic, fiscal or monetary systems
are enacted.
TOTAL RETURNS
Year
Total Port.
50/50 Port.
Income Port.
Stock Index
Bond Index
Cash Index
1926
11.62
8.85
6.08
11.62
6.08
3.27
1927
37.49
21.52
5.54
37.49
5.54
3.12
1928
43.61
23.63
3.65
43.61
1.59
3.56
1929
-8.42
-1.84
4.75
-8.42
5.05
4.75
1930
4.75
5.98
7.21
-24.90
7.16
2.41
1931
-2.16
-2.16
-2.16
-43.34
-2.16
1.07
1932
9.51
9.51
9.51
-8.19
9.51
0.96
1933
17.86
11.34
4.82
53.99
4.82
0.30
1934
10.69
10.69
10.69
-1.44
10.69
0.16
1935
7.92
7.92
7.92
47.67
7.92
0.17
1936
4.35
4.35
4.35
33.92
4.35
0.18
1937
-15.85
-6.94
1.98
-35.03
1.98
0.31
1938
36.51
21.36
6.20
31.12
6.20
-0.02
1939
4.33
4.33
4.33
-0.41
4.33
0.02
1940
7.38
5.25
3.11
-9.78
3.11
0
1941
1.28
1.28
1.28
-11.59
1.28
0.06
1942
26.32
14.25
2.17
20.34
2.17
0.27
1943
25.90
14.36
2.82
25.90
2.82
0.35
1944
19.75
11.29
2.83
19.75
2.83
0.33
1945
36.44
19.66
2.87
36.44
2.87
0.33
1946
-8.07
-3.41
1.25
-8.07
1.25
0.35
1947
5.71
2.74
-0.23
5.71
-0.23
0.50
1948
5.50
3.41
1.32
5.50
2.65
0.81
1949
18.79
9.95
1.10
18.79
2.67
1.10
1950
31.71
16.46
1.20
31.71
1.20
1.20
1951
24.02
12.76
1.49
24.02
-0.71
1.49
1952
18.37
10.02
1.66
18.37
2.29
1.66
1953
-0.99
0.42
1.82
-0.99
3.29
1.82
1954
52.62
27.83
3.04
52.62
3.63
0.86
1955
31.56
16.09
0.62
31.56
-0.25
1.57
1956
6.56
4.51
2.46
6.56
-2.66
2.46
1957
-10.78
-1.50
7.78
-10.78
8.14
3.14
1958
43.36
20.89
-1.58
43.36
-1.62
1.54
1959
11.96
7.46
2.95
11.96
-0.59
2.95
1960
0.47
2.91
5.35
0.47
10.82
2.66
1961
26.89
14.89
2.89
26.89
2.89
2.13
1962
-8.73
-1.17
6.40
-8.73
6.40
2.73
1963
22.80
12.69
2.58
22.80
1.83
3.12
1964
16.48
10.01
3.54
16.48
4.30
3.54
1965
12.45
8.19
3.93
12.45
0.50
3.93
1966
-13.90
-4.57
4.76
-10.06
3.12
4.76
1967
11.25
4.40
-2.46
23.98
-1.08
4.21
1968
1.64
1.64
1.64
11.06
3.85
5.21
1969
6.58
6.58
6.58
-8.50
-3.31
6.58
1970
18.92
14.92
10.92
4.01
17.39
6.52
1971
14.31
9.28
4.25
14.31
9.52
4.39
1972
15.59
10.75
5.90
18.98
5.90
3.84
1973
6.56
6.56
6.56
-14.66
3.40
6.93
1974
21.24
14.70
8.16
-26.47
2.63
8.00
1975
2.94
6.58
10.21
37.20
10.21
5.80
1976
22.61
18.75
14.89
23.84
14.89
5.08
1977
-0.25
1.76
3.76
-7.18
1.52
5.12
1978
6.78
6.98
7.18
6.56
2.24
7.18
1979
10.38
10.38
10.38
18.44
1.20
10.38
1980
1.35
1.35
1.35
32.42
1.58
11.24
1981
18.40
18.40
18.40
-4.91
5.71
14.71
1982
49.88
41.85
33.81
21.41
33.81
10.54
1983
22.51
14.76
7.01
22.51
7.01
8.80
1984
4.29
6.29
8.29
3.05
15.01
9.85
1985
25.48
24.62
23.75
32.56
23.75
7.72
1986
16.09
16.44
16.79
16.09
16.79
6.16
1987
2.27
0.78
-0.71
2.27
1.79
5.47
1988
17.94
12.15
6.35
17.94
7.71
6.35
1989
13.76
11.07
8.37
29.17
14.32
8.37
1990
0.08
4.16
8.24
-6.18
8.70
7.81
1991
34.20
25.61
17.01
34.20
17.01
5.60
1992
8.97
8.19
7.40
8.97
7.40
3.29
Avg.
13.73
9.76
5.80
12.25
5.46
3.63
Hypothetical investment of $1,000 on 1-1-1926
$ values on 12-31-1992
65% 5 year government bonds
35% 20 year High-grade Corporate Bonds
1926 to 1991
Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond
Index
1992
CASH INDEX:
30 day U.S. Treasury Bills
1926 to 1991
Average money market mutual fund
1992
BALANCED INDEX:
50% stock index return
37½% bond index return
12½% cash index return
FIXED INCOME INDEX:
75% bond index return
25% cash index return
EXPLANATION OF RETURNS
* All index growth figures in dollar terms are for illustration
purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index, it must be
done through an index fund.
* All trades and
returns were based on closing prices.
* All returns include reinvestment of dividends and exclude any
tax liabilities/transaction fees.
* 50/50 Model Portfolio
was rebalanced at 50% growth and 50%
income at each year-end.