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PORTFOLIOS STOCK PICKER SIGNALS WORLD MARKETS FLIP SIDE

BACK TESTING

 


      We back tested our system using stationary parameters on economic and market data from 1926 through 1992. Going forward our system must adapt to changes as they occur. Which is why we have and will modify our timing parameters within the system, in the event that fundamental changes in the economic, fiscal or monetary systems are enacted.     

   

TOTAL RETURNS

 

Year Total
Port.
50/50
Port.
Income
Port.
Stock
Index
Bond
Index
Cash
Index
 1926 11.62 8.85 6.08 11.62 6.08 3.27
1927 37.49 21.52 5.54 37.49 5.54 3.12
1928 43.61 23.63 3.65 43.61 1.59 3.56
1929 -8.42 -1.84 4.75 -8.42 5.05 4.75
1930 4.75 5.98 7.21 -24.90 7.16 2.41
1931 -2.16 -2.16 -2.16 -43.34 -2.16 1.07
1932 9.51 9.51 9.51 -8.19 9.51 0.96
1933 17.86 11.34 4.82 53.99 4.82 0.30
1934 10.69 10.69 10.69 -1.44 10.69 0.16
1935 7.92 7.92 7.92 47.67 7.92 0.17
1936 4.35 4.35 4.35 33.92 4.35 0.18
1937 -15.85 -6.94 1.98 -35.03 1.98 0.31
1938 36.51 21.36 6.20 31.12 6.20 -0.02
1939 4.33 4.33 4.33 -0.41 4.33 0.02
1940 7.38 5.25 3.11 -9.78 3.11 0
1941 1.28 1.28 1.28 -11.59 1.28 0.06
1942 26.32 14.25 2.17 20.34 2.17 0.27
1943 25.90 14.36 2.82 25.90 2.82 0.35
1944 19.75 11.29 2.83 19.75 2.83 0.33
1945 36.44 19.66 2.87 36.44 2.87 0.33
1946 -8.07 -3.41 1.25 -8.07 1.25 0.35
1947 5.71 2.74 -0.23 5.71 -0.23 0.50
1948 5.50 3.41 1.32 5.50 2.65 0.81
1949 18.79 9.95 1.10 18.79 2.67 1.10
1950 31.71 16.46 1.20 31.71 1.20 1.20
1951 24.02 12.76 1.49 24.02 -0.71 1.49
1952 18.37 10.02 1.66 18.37 2.29 1.66
1953 -0.99 0.42 1.82 -0.99 3.29 1.82
1954 52.62 27.83 3.04 52.62 3.63 0.86
1955 31.56 16.09 0.62 31.56 -0.25 1.57
1956 6.56 4.51 2.46 6.56 -2.66 2.46
1957 -10.78 -1.50 7.78 -10.78 8.14 3.14
1958 43.36 20.89 -1.58 43.36 -1.62 1.54
1959 11.96 7.46 2.95 11.96 -0.59 2.95
1960 0.47 2.91 5.35 0.47 10.82 2.66
1961 26.89 14.89 2.89 26.89 2.89 2.13
1962 -8.73 -1.17 6.40 -8.73 6.40 2.73
1963 22.80 12.69 2.58 22.80 1.83 3.12
1964 16.48 10.01 3.54 16.48 4.30 3.54
1965 12.45 8.19 3.93 12.45 0.50 3.93
1966 -13.90 -4.57 4.76 -10.06 3.12 4.76
1967 11.25 4.40 -2.46 23.98 -1.08 4.21
1968 1.64 1.64 1.64 11.06 3.85 5.21
1969 6.58 6.58 6.58 -8.50 -3.31 6.58
1970 18.92 14.92 10.92 4.01 17.39 6.52
1971 14.31 9.28 4.25 14.31 9.52 4.39
1972 15.59 10.75 5.90 18.98 5.90 3.84
1973 6.56 6.56 6.56 -14.66 3.40 6.93
1974 21.24 14.70 8.16 -26.47 2.63 8.00
1975 2.94 6.58 10.21 37.20 10.21 5.80
1976 22.61 18.75 14.89 23.84 14.89 5.08
1977 -0.25 1.76 3.76 -7.18 1.52 5.12
1978 6.78 6.98 7.18 6.56 2.24 7.18
1979 10.38 10.38 10.38 18.44 1.20 10.38
1980 1.35 1.35 1.35 32.42 1.58 11.24
1981 18.40 18.40 18.40 -4.91 5.71 14.71
1982 49.88 41.85 33.81 21.41 33.81 10.54
1983 22.51 14.76 7.01 22.51 7.01 8.80
1984 4.29 6.29 8.29 3.05 15.01 9.85
1985 25.48 24.62 23.75 32.56 23.75 7.72
1986 16.09 16.44 16.79 16.09 16.79 6.16
1987 2.27 0.78 -0.71 2.27 1.79 5.47
1988 17.94 12.15 6.35 17.94 7.71 6.35
1989 13.76 11.07 8.37 29.17 14.32 8.37
1990 0.08 4.16 8.24 -6.18 8.70 7.81
1991 34.20 25.61 17.01 34.20 17.01 5.60
1992 8.97 8.19 7.40 8.97 7.40 3.29
   
Avg. 13.73 9.76 5.80 12.25 5.46 3.63

       

Hypothetical investment of $1,000 on 1-1-1926
$ values on 12-31-1992

TOTAL MARKET PORTFOLIO

                   $3,166,324

STOCK INDEX $673,736
 
50/50 PORTFOLIO

                     $420,368

BALANCED INDEX

                       $182,069

 
INCOME PORTFOLIO

                       $39,527

FIXED INCOME INDEX

                        $24,916

Click on portfolio names to view the trades

 

INDEXES USED 

STOCK INDEX: S&P 90 Index      1926 to 1956
  S&P 500 Index      1957 to 1983
  Wilshire 5000 Index      1984 to 1992
     
BOND INDEX: 65%  5 year government bonds                              35%  20 year High-grade Corporate Bonds      1926 to 1991
  Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index      1992
     
CASH INDEX: 30 day U.S. Treasury Bills      1926 to 1991
  Average money market mutual fund      1992
     
BALANCED INDEX: 50% stock index return   37½% bond index return 12½% cash index return  
     
FIXED INCOME INDEX: 75% bond index return      25% cash index return  

 

EXPLANATION OF RETURNS

* All index growth figures in dollar terms are for illustration purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index, it must be done through an index fund.

* All trades and returns were based on closing prices.

* All returns include reinvestment of dividends and exclude any tax liabilities/transaction fees.

* 50/50 Model Portfolio was rebalanced at 50% growth and 50% income at each year-end.

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 5 YEARS ENDING 12/31/07

  Focus Portfolio      74%

  Total Portfolio       69%

  50/50 Portfolio     44%

  Income Portfolio   22%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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